It has been more than a year since the coronavirus pandemic affected the whole world, including our country, and in this process, a lot of data was collected about the pandemic process. Health Measurement and Evaluation Institute (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation/IHME)will take place in Turkey until September 1, 2021, taking into account these data. estimated total number of deaths from COVID-19 explained.
IHME has made its forecasts based on three different scenarios. The main scenario is that vaccination continues and the B.1.1.7 variant of the virus spreads. according to the current situation while showing the probable situation; indicated by the red line “worse” In the scenario, the situation that will occur if the mobility returns to the pre-COVID-19 period is shown. with green lines Scenario where the use of masks is 95 percent is showing.
When we look at the data shared on the official website of the Ministry of Health as of May 12, 2021, the total number of deaths due to COVID-19 43,821 we see that. According to the graphic shared by IHME, in the scenario where the use of masks is at the level of 95 percent, the total number of deaths due to COVID-19 as of September 1, 2021 73,382 it will be. Considering the current conditions, the total number of deaths 74,243 While it is foreseen that it will happen; total number of deaths in the “worse” scenario 80,363will reach .
In addition to the total number of deaths from COVID-19, the Health Measurement and Evaluation Institute also shared a projection regarding the daily number of deaths. There are three different scenarios in this chart, as in the estimation of the total number of deaths. In the scenario where the use of masks is at the level of 95 percent, the number of deaths due to COVID-19 per day as of September 1, 2021 8 while current conditions persist. 12, if in the “worse” scenario 83 it will be.
The purple thin straight line you see in the graphic above, total bed capacity, if the green thin straight line total bed capacity in intensive care units. is showing. The wavy purple line shows the total number of beds needed, and the wavy green line shows the total number of intensive care beds needed.
You can see the mask usage rate estimate in the chart above. While the green dashed line extending upwards shows the scenario where the mask usage is at the level of 95 percent; The purple line shows the estimated mask usage rate. Accordingly, when we come to September 1, the mask usage rate 74 percent levels will decrease.
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Kaynak: https://www.webtekno.com/covid-19-olenlerin-sayisi-eylul-2021-kac-olacak-h109830.html
